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Tag Archives: interest rates
Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16?
The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016? Newspapers in the United States seem to emphasize the positive aspects of the drop in prices. I have written Ten Reasons Why High … Continue reading
World Oil Production at 3/31/2014–Where are We Headed?
The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly … Continue reading
Debt: Eight Reasons This Time is Different
In today’s world, we have a huge amount of debt outstanding. Academic researchers Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have become famous for their book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly and their earlier paper This Time is Different: … Continue reading
The Connection Between Oil Prices, Debt Levels, and Interest Rates
If oil is “just another commodity,” then there shouldn’t be any connection between oil prices, debt levels, interest rates, and total rates of return. But there clearly is a connection. On one hand, spikes in oil prices are connected with … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications
Tagged debt level, interest rates, oil price, recession
586 Comments
Oil Prices Lead to Hard Financial Limits
We live in a finite world. Clearly, a finite world has limits of many kinds. Yet economists and other researchers use models that assume that these limits are unimportant for the foreseeable future. They have certainly not stopped to think that … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications
Tagged interest rates, oil importer, oil prices, price bubble, recession
321 Comments
