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Category Archives: Oil and Its Future
2023: Expect a financial crash followed by major energy-related changes
If the world economy experiences major financial turbulence in 2023, we could be in for a rough ride. In my opinion, a major financial crash seems likely. This is could upset the economy far more seriously than the 2008 crash.
I am certain that some mitigation measures can be implemented. For example, there can be a major push toward trying to make everything that we have today last longer. Materials can be salvaged from structures that are no longer used. And some types of local production can be ramped up.
We can keep our fingers crossed that I am wrong but, with less oil and other energy resources available per person, moving goods shorter distances makes sense. Thus, the initial trends we are seeing toward regionalization are likely to continue. The move away from the US dollar as the reserve currency also looks likely to continue. Moreover, if the changes I am talking about don’t occur in 2023, they are likely to begin in 2024 or 2025. Continue reading
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High
When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following: Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future. “Work backward” to see how much oil … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, Oil and Its Future
Tagged debt defaults, low oil prices, low wages, oil forecasts, oil price, recession
904 Comments
An Economic Theory of Limited Oil Supply
We seem to hear two versions of the story of limited oil supply: 1. The economists’ view, saying that the issue is a simple problem of supply and demand. Substitution, higher prices, demand destruction, greater efficiency, and increased production of … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, Oil and Its Future
Tagged Hubbert, M. King Hubbert, oil prices, oil supply, peak oil
156 Comments
Renewables Are Overrated, We Need Cheap Oil – Interview with Gail Tverberg
This article originally appeared at Oilprice.com. What does our world’s energy future look like? Does renewable energy feature as much in the energy production mix as many hope it will? Will natural gas and fracking help reduce our dependence upon … Continue reading
The Growing Part of the World in Charts
Some parts of the world pretty much sailed through the 2008-2009 recession, while other parts of the world had huge problems. The part that sailed through the recession is what I call the “Growing Part of the World.” I thought … Continue reading
